China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun was notably absent from this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia’s premier security forum, marking the first time since 2019 that Beijing has not sent its defence minister to the high-level event.
Instead of Dong, China dispatched a delegation of lower-ranking representatives to the annual gathering at Singapore’s Shangri-La Hotel. The absence occurred during heightened tensions between China and the United States, raising questions about Beijing’s diplomatic strategy.
The no-show meant no face-to-face meeting between Dong and his US counterpart, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, who delivered pointed warnings about China’s military intentions during his address to delegates.
“It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth told the forum, citing China’s military drills around Taiwan and South China Sea activities.
Hegseth characterized China’s actions as proactive harassment of neighbors, stating: “There’s no reason to sugar-coat it. The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent.”
The US defence secretary also encouraged Asian nations to increase defence spending, referencing Germany’s pledge to allocate 5 percent of GDP to defence. He questioned why European countries would make such commitments “while key allies in Asia spend less on defence in the face of an even more formidable threat.”
Opening his speech with reassurance to regional allies, Hegseth declared: “America is proud to be back in the Indo-Pacific, and we’re here to stay,” addressing concerns about strained relationships following President Trump’s trade tariff policies.
However, some analysts questioned the severity of Hegseth’s warnings. Dylan Loh, assistant professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, noted: “Short of a very few countries, not many in this part of the world see China as an imminent threat and would up their defence spending.”
Beijing has remained silent about the reasons for Dong’s absence, creating an information vacuum filled with speculation. The Shangri-La Dialogue traditionally provides a platform for informal meetings between Chinese and US officials, with China’s military leadership able to directly respond to US presentations.
One theory suggests China avoided sending high-profile delegates during sensitive US-China tariff negotiations. “Any sort of faux pas or comments that may go off script can be picked up and picked apart or misconstrued,” Loh explained, questioning why Beijing would “take the risk when US-China relations are at a very delicate point.”
The forum has historically presented challenges for Chinese defence ministers, who face difficult questions from counterparts concerned about Beijing’s regional assertiveness. “Any Chinese defence minister coming to Singapore now will be exposing himself and the country to political risk,” Loh observed, noting that contentious topics like the South China Sea and Taiwan would likely emerge.
Dong’s appointment as defence minister in late 2023 followed his predecessor Li Shangfu’s removal from office. Within his first year, media reports suggested Dong was under investigation as part of broader military corruption inquiries, though Beijing denied these claims.
The Chinese military has faced intense scrutiny amid reports of senior official purges by President Xi Jinping. The absence of senior general He Weidong from April political meetings has fueled speculation about possible People’s Liberation Army restructuring.
Ian Chong from the Carnegie China research centre suggested domestic military turmoil could explain Dong’s absence: “Because of the domestic turmoil with China’s senior military, they perhaps don’t want to, or the PLA itself feels that it’s not in a position to send somebody senior.”
At a pre-summit news conference, Chinese military spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang maintained that communication channels remained open between Washington and Beijing defence officials.
“China places great importance on US-China military ties, and is open to communication at different levels,” Zhang stated, announcing Dong’s absence.
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