India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous country, yet southern states are now grappling with unexpected demographic challenges. Despite having nearly 1.45 billion people, states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are discussing population growth strategies amid rapidly declining fertility rates.
Currently, India’s fertility rate has dramatically fallen from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just two today. Seventeen states have already reached below-replacement fertility levels, with southern states leading this demographic transition. Tamil Nadu and Karnataka now have fertility rates (1.4 and 1.6 respectively) comparable to European countries.
These states are particularly concerned about potential electoral and financial consequences. The upcoming 2026 delimitation exercise could reduce their parliamentary seats and federal revenue allocations, as northern states with higher populations stand to gain representation.
Demographic experts warn of more significant challenges. India is experiencing accelerated population aging, expected to reach critical thresholds much faster than developed countries. With fewer children and a growing elderly population, concerns include:
- Limited social security infrastructure
- Reduced workforce
- Increasing old-age dependency ratio
- Economic sustainability challenges
While some political voices, including the RSS chief, have urged couples to have more children, demographers suggest such calls are unlikely to reverse societal trends. The focus, they argue, should be on creating policies that support an aging population and maximize the remaining demographic dividend.
Experts recommend extending retirement ages, improving healthcare for older populations, and creating economic opportunities to navigate this complex demographic transition.
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